Keeping It Simple This New Year!

One thing to be excited about in this brand new year is the flurry of activity among Palestinians and Israelis to get back on track a Middle East process we had already counted as dead a long time ago. The seriousness of the calls from both camps for an immediate return to the negotiating table is an indicator of the global diplomatic gain the Palestinian leadership has achieved. It seems that the support the Palestinians have drummed up last year is going to pay off in 2012. The Israelis can also claim their own victory by saying the pressure they exercised on the United States to punish the Palestinians for their unilateral moves toward an independent state, have paid off because it unified the Palestinians and brought them back to the negotiating table.

The Obama administration would also love to add this major win to the list of achievements in this crucial presidential election year. Israelis and Palestinians inching closer to peace and security will give a major boost for an Obama re-election along with the death of Ossama bin Laden, the end of the U.S. missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the credit the administration will claim for toppling Arab dictators.

The region is about to enter a phase of tribulation and uncertainty it has never known in its history. Countries will be dealing with new realities. Individuals will try to find their position in their new world. Politicians, old and new, will try to define what their new role is going to be and how they will fit in the big picture. This year will define the nations that fought hard in 2011 to remove dictators, tyrants or simply leaders they felt do not represent them or do not represent them well.
The reality in Libya is very different from that in Egypt or Tunisia. The challenges for each country are as diverse as the countries themselves.

Iraq will have to learn how to survive on its own as a nation in the midst of mostly unfriendly regional interests. Jordan will have to lead the way in an overdue genuine intellectual revolution.

Struggling with an undefined future are Bahrain and Syria, each having the potential of growing further out of control, toppling their leaderships or turning into an all out civil war. In both cases the world seems to have decided to let thing develop on their own before interfering, that is if the international community interferes at all.

Morocco, and Saudi Arabia are both timed bombs that are waiting to explode. It might be a while before either of them does, they can potentially remain stagnant for a long period of time unless people on the inside take matters into their own hands as their neighbors and brethren did in Arab and African nations.

Lebanon is a key player that has not made a move yet because it has no clear leader and it does not have a clear policy on where it stands on the Arab awakening. Judging by the past it will never have a unified voice with or against anything. It is possible that Lebanon’s disunity and rampant divisions will save it from its version of Arab uprisings. The country’s many handicaps might turn out to be its curse and the blessing that will spare it from falling into another endless civil war. If not, a conflict in Lebanon at this point will have consequences that rattle well beyond the tiny country’s borders.

In the spirit of keeping it simple in order to remain optimistic, eyes on where the Palestinians and Israelis will go with their renewed negotiation efforts might spell positivity for the region. The timing is right for some kind of peaceful, fair, inclusive and genuine agreement on that front. If it works out, it might reverberate positivity around it, starting with Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt. The rest will follow.